The Truth About EV Fire Risks

EVs Not as Safe as You’ve Been Told…

As electric vehicles (EVs or also called BEVs) become more common, discussions around fire risk and safety have intensified, and for good reason. While proponents of EVs often claim that EV fires are rare, the reality is more complex. Fires involving lithium-ion batteries are significantly more violent, destructive, difficult to control and therefore dangerous, compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle fires. Consequently, an EV fire is a very different type of emergency. Unfortunately, the risks of an EV catching fire have been significantly downplayed and under reported. People are not being told the truth!

Why We Need an Honest Conversation About EV Fire Risks

Rather than make fictitious claims, which seems to be the common approach to this topic, let’s look at real-world data and break down the facts as follows:

• Why are EV fires so destructive?
• How do EV fires really compare to ICE vehicle fires?
• How likely is each type of vehicle to catch fire?
• What might happen if all cars were converted to EVs?
• How does mainstream media misrepresent EV fire risks?

Why EV Fires Are So Destructive

EV fires can be catastrophic events that endanger the occupants of the vehicle and everything around them. EVs have been known to cause fires that burn down entire buildings, car parks and even cargo ships. This is no laughing matter, and there seems to be no rhyme or reason as to when it might happen. It’s not uncommon for EVs that are charging to catch fire, and there are documented incidents resulting from collisions when the battery pack is physically impacted and compromised. However, some EV fires appear to be completely random and spontaneous, as they can even start while the vehicle is standing parked and unused, with no charging cable attached and no apparent physical damage to the battery pack. There is a good reason why the Houses of Parliament have banned EV charging from their underground car park!

The Key Factors That Make EV Fires Dangerous:

Extreme Temperatures and Thermal Runaway

EV fires can burn instantly and ferociously, with no warning and little time to get out of the car and harm’s way. They burn so fast and at significantly higher temperatures than ICE fires, due to the chemical reactions within lithium-ion batteries. When damaged, overheated, or exposed to moisture, battery cells can enter “thermal runaway”, a chain reaction that:

• Rapidly increases temperature over 1,200°C / 2,192°F.
• Causes uncontrollable explosions as cells rupture.
• Makes EV fires extremely difficult to extinguish.
• Means first responders often fail to rescue vehicle occupants due to the extreme heat and violent nature of the fires, leading to a tragic loss of life.

Thermal runaway is now becoming widely acknowledged as a known design fault of lithium-ion batteries, and legal cases are being filed with automakers for the resulting damages.

Difficult to Put Out

• Many fire departments lack the specialised training needed to handle EV fires.
• Water alone cannot extinguish a lithium-ion battery fire, as it only cools the flames temporarily.
• An EV battery in thermal runaway is explosive. The fire cannot be extinguished with chemicals such as Class D fire extinguishers or foam agents, and so EV fires are left to burn themselves out.
• EV fires can reignite hours, days, or even months after being “put out” due to the chemical instability of damaged battery cells.

Toxic Smoke and Chemicals

EV fires release a toxic cocktail of gases, including hydrofluoric acid, carbon monoxide and hydrogen cyanide.

• These chemicals pose severe health risks to both emergency services and bystanders.
• Firefighters often lack the necessary protective gear to handle these toxic emissions safely.
• Toxic gases from burning battery packs can kill instantly.

How Do ICE Vehicle Fires Compare?

ICE vehicle fires, while dangerous, are generally predictable and far more survivable.

Predictable Warning Signs

Most ICE car fires are preceded by warning signs such as:

• Smell of fuel
• Oil leaks
• Overheating engine
• Smoke

These indicators give drivers time to pull over and exit safely, reducing the risk of injury or death.

Easy to Extinguish

• ICE fires can usually be put out with water or standard firefighting foam.
• Firefighters have over a century of experience dealing with ICE fires.

Safer Vehicle Exits

EVs have been known to lock occupants inside during an accident due to electronic system failures.

• Traditional ICE vehicles have simple manual door locks that allow passengers to exit. Even in the event of an accident, when computer management systems may fail, or if the battery is dead, mechanical locks continue to function, and it is not necessary to search for a manual override.
• If an EV car fire occurs, occupants typically have just a few moments to escape before flames and toxic smoke can become life-threatening. In an ICE car there is usually much more time to get to safety or call for help.

How Likely Is an EV Fire Compared to an ICE Fire?

No Easy Answers

To accurately compare EV and ICE fire risks, we need to examine fire incident data, that is often under-reported for EVs. Unfortunately, there is no unified or global data, as every country is different and will give different results. They all have their specific conditions, such as government EV policy, new and used car markets, existing fleet vehicle demographics, mix of EV battery technologies and charging infrastructure. All these variables, and more, can impact the results. Further, the way fire incidents are reported varies widely between nations. This means doing the same research for every individual country would be necessary to get a full global picture. Interestingly, there appears to be no research that considers aging fleets of ICE vehicles when comparing them to newer EV fleets. Ten years from now, we may have a more accurate picture of the fire risks of aging EVs.

Real-World Data Selected for this Research

For this reason, I have selected the two largest automobile markets, the USA and China, to give us a reference point. Notice that, as expected, both countries give differing results. First, we will look at the size of both markets. China is the largest production and sales hub, driven by government policies and ownership, state-funded EV incentives (handouts) and a large population. The U.S. has the largest car ownership per capita, with high demand for trucks and SUVs. All numbers are approximations.

*Using the aggregated yearly average from the last 5 years (2020-2024), we can now calculate the fire risk for both types of vehicles in each of the two markets. All numbers are approximations.

Probability Comparison of EVs vs ICE Cars

Based on the above data:

• EVs are between 1.5x and 2x more likely to catch fire than ICE cars.
• The mainstream narrative that EV fires are “rare” compared to ICE fires is misleading because it ignores per-vehicle fire rates and the potential catastrophic outcomes.
• Hybrid fires were apportioned based on the energy source of the fire: hybrid fires caused by a battery were included in the EV numbers, and hybrid fires caused by petrol or diesel were included in the ICE data.

What If All Vehicles Were Converted to Battery Electric?

Now we can predict the total annual EV fires if both the USA and China switched their entire vehicle fleets from ICE to EVs.

USA Projection if All Vehicles Were EVs

• Current total vehicles: 290 million
• EV fire probability: 0.134%
• Estimated EV fires per year: 388,600 fires

China Projection if All Vehicles Were EVs

• Current total vehicles: 302 million
• EV fire probability: 0.082%
• Estimated EV fires per year: 247,640 fires

That would be a 2x–3x increase in annual vehicle fires compared to today.

How the Media Misrepresents EV Fire Risks

The mainstream narrative often claims that EVs are less likely to catch fire than ICE vehicles. This is based on old or flawed interpretations of data, and they usually compare total fire counts instead of per-vehicle probability. Since there are far more ICE cars than EVs, raw fire counts make EVs seem safer. However, when comparing fire risk per vehicle, EVs are in fact riskier. The media narrative also ignores the severity of EV fires, even falsely claiming some EV fires were started by diesel vehicles.

Even if the risk of EV fires were the same as that of ICE cars, the fact that EV fires explode faster, burn hotter, last longer and release toxic smoke makes them a far greater danger to people, emergency responders and surrounding structures. Common reporting does not address the issue of EV fire unpredictability. Whereas ICE fires are often predictable and preventable, due to obvious warning signs, EV fires can be spontaneous, much harder to predict and even start when a vehicle is not in use.

EV Fires Are More Likely Than You’ve Been Told

The facts are that EV fires are more destructive, harder to extinguish and more toxic than ICE fires. Real-world data demonstrates EVs are 1.5x-2x more likely to catch fire per vehicle, and if the entire vehicle fleet transforms to electric, we could see nearly 3x more annual fires. Of course, these numbers are based on battery technologies in current circulation, and developments could see improvements in fire safety in the long-term.

In the meantime, the media’s claim that EV fires are rarer is misleading, as it ignores per-vehicle probabilities and appears to be aligned with the net-zero narrative, rather than anything approaching scientific reality. While EVs are promoted as the future of transportation, their fire risks should not be ignored or downplayed. Indeed, there should be a big question mark over batteries and their validity in widespread personal transportation. Consumers deserve real, data-driven information about fire safety risks before making the switch. Would you feel safer in an EV or an ICE car? Let’s start an honest discussion.

You may want to read: “The Hard Truth About EV Battery Recycling.”

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